Mathematical modeling of metabolic and hormonal regulation: risk assessment of environmental and radiation influence on various links of endocrine system

Konstantin Atoyev

Advanced modeling method for health risk assessment has been elaborated. It is based on catastrophes, bifurcation, and chaos theories. The human organism has been examined as a developing system with dissipative structure, near an unstable steady state far from equilibrium in bifurcation zone, where any fluctuation leads to an unpredictable feature. The possibility of chaotic oscillations (Lorenz attractor) in an energy conversion system has been shown. The high susceptibility to initial conditions is a common feature of all chaotic systems and causing impossibility to predict patient's health and a treatment effectiveness. The 4-dimensional typology of the organism network as a self-reproducing, self-organizing entity, has been proposed. A nonlinear mathematical model of neuro-immune-endocrine network has been elaborated. It makes possible to investigate interrelations between various control mechanisms of metabolic and hormonal regulation, radiation, and stress impacts on thyroid system, mechanisms of various endocrine diseases formation. The following tasks have been examined: 1) comparative analysis of endocrine system regulation for some types of thyroid system pathology (such as hypo- and hyperthyroidism, T3- and T4-thyreotoxicoses); 2) optimum control of thyroid system restoration; 3) ranking of radiation influence on various links of thyroid system. The method of casual search has been chosen as an optimization method. The performed system data analysis made it possible to reveal the most probable sequence of metabolic and hormonal changes leading to a thyroid pathology occurrence.